Inside Japan’s roadmap to zero emissions from international shipping

The second pathway focuses on expanding the use of hydrogen and/or ammonia both as engines and fuel cells. Their combined use could make for 44% of energy consumption by 2050. However, Takasaki pointed out that in both scenarios fossil-based LNG will still represent a substantial share of energy consumption at about 35%.

The final part of the roadmap focuses on four design concepts for the construction of Zero-Emission Ships by 2028. These are a hydrogen-fuelled ship (called C – ZERO Japan H2), a super-efficient LNG-fuelled ship (C – ZERO Japan LNG & Wind), an ammonia-fuelled ship (C – ZERO Japan NH3), and an onboard CO₂ capturing ship (C – ZERO Japan Capture).

With regards to hydrogen and ammonia, the paper warns that Japan needs to start investing in the development of engines powered by either one of them very soon. The resulting models will then have to be trialled by 2026 in order to be eventually ready for rollout before 2030. As Takasaki explained, while the hydrogen/ammonia fuel would be more expensive to produce, it would also provide benefits when it comes to storing and transporting it.

Despite following the IMO’s directives, the Roadmap to Zero Emission from Shipping is emblematic of Japan's devotion to tackling climate change. “Japan is keen to surge forward with its plan to be the leader in developing electric vessels, and the roadmap is a way of setting targets and achieving aims,” explains Jonathan Moss, head of transport at global legal business DWF.

The local shipping sector has long been a supporter of electrification and the advantages it brings and the past few months reflect this. Earlier in May, seven prominent Japanese shipping companies joined forces to create the e5 Consortium, an initiative that aims to “establish new ocean shipping infrastructure services through various initiatives to develop, realise, and commercialise zero-emission electric vessels”.

Set for launch in March 2022, the world's first zero-emission electric tanker would be powered by large-capacity lithium-ion batteries and bring solid contributions to the government’s roadmap and Japan’s coastal shipping.

Two months later, in July 2020, nine other shipping leaders established a working group within Japan's Carbon Capture & Reuse Study Group to study the feasibility of using methanation technology for zero-emission ship fuels. Led by JFE Steel Corporation, JGC Corporation and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, the group is looking into a potential carbon recycling supply chain of methanation fuel that could help achieve significant GHG reductions in the maritime sector. 

As Moss explains, all these independent projects send a clear message of Japan’s commitment to sustainability while also playing a crucial role in the industry’s effort to attract a younger workforce. “The roadmap will attract a new generation of mariners to replace the ever-ageing workforce,” he says. “It will promote Japan's standing as a maritime state which has cutting edge innovation and sound technological, environmental expertise at the top of the agenda.”

Some six months since its launch, the roadmap is just the tip of the iceberg of the monumental work that will be required to meet the 2030 and 2050 targets. Yet as Moss claims, Japanese shippers have plenty of reasons to deliver results as expected.

"Order books swelled post-2017 when Japanese shipbuilders saw a rise in demand for merchant vessels with orders increasing by 150% in 2017,” he says. “Japanese shipbuilders backed by the government recognise the importance of realising aims and delivering on specific projects.”

Once the leading shipbuilder in the world, Japan is now feeling the pressure of competition from China and South Korea, which have been consolidating their market presence through mega-mergers. Well aware of its disadvantage, Japan has successfully identified sustainable ships as a way to differentiate itself.

“The huge investment [in sustainable vessels] by large Japanese shipping companies including Idemitsu, Asahi Tankers, Mitsui OSK Lines means that those in charge of the roadmap will be held accountable, heightening the prospects that the roadmap will succeed," Moss continues.

Yet he warns that while the strategy is proving successful, “the danger is that too much concentration on such venerable intentions will be a distraction from the current problems which coronavirus is inflicting on [the country’s] cargo industry."

The pandemic is currently posing serious challenges to Japanese transportation leaders, with volumes by coastal vessels between April 2019 and March 2020 plummeting compared to the previous year according to DWF.

Figures from the Japan Ship Exporters’ Association further show that their combined backlog fell to a 23-year low in late May, while total orders received by the Japanese builders in June were down by 52%. This is forcing several large companies to consider downsizing their business in the face of a looming economic recession. 

With more uncertain months ahead, Moss concludes: “the sector will need to overcome the combined challenges of working on a rebound strategy for its cargo industry at the same time as developing the roadmap."