How new fuel bunkering will impact route planning

The maritime industry's transition to a lower emissions future is being driven by a developing set of regulatory requirements. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) continues to evolve its emission reduction ambitions, while the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime Regulation (FuelEU) are adding complexity to vessel operations. Compliance isn’t negotiable but the switch to new, lower emission fuels, has made route planning a more complex process.

Bunker supply chains were historically straightforward, with vessels running primarily on conventional heavy fuel oil (HFO) or marine gas oil (MGO). This changed with the introduction of Emission Control Areas (ECAs) and restrictions on NOx and SOx.

"At the time, these regulations divided the SOLAS fleet and created new pressures in the bunker supply chain,” says Barry Hooper, Lloyd's Register VP of Product and Tech. “This led to bunker shortages of ECA fuels in EU ports, increased hire rates for compliant vessels and spikes in very low sulphur fuel oil (VLFSO) bunker prices."

The transition to future fuels adds further complexity across a voyage, explains Hooper, noting that operators must understand a vessel's suitability for cargo, operational and regulatory requirements, while also accounting for the availability and greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of their fuels in their intended operating regions.

“Shipping operators tend to buy fuels on the spot market, but increasingly they may have to look at risk sharing agreements with fuel producers to meet particular requirements,” highlights Dr Edmund Hughes, International Bunker Industry Association (IBIA) representative to the IMO.

“They're also having to look at energy efficiency, but even if they make productivity gains, the new fuels have a lower energy intensity, which will therefore require them to take on fuel at more regular intervals." 

As the regulatory framework becomes more complex and the consequences of non-compliance more significant, a forward-looking approach becomes essential. A new generation of digital technologies is helping shipping operators to navigate these uncharted waters. These platforms and route planning software can be deployed to help vessels optimise fuel use.

Lloyd’s Register recently launched its Risk Manager solution to help simplify EU ETS and FuelEU compliance and manage emissions risks across entire fleets. It achieves this by providing a comprehensive view of a fleet's exposure to emissions regulations. The platform is also designed to adapt to evolving regulations.

Shipping software and services provider NAPA is another company offering such solutions and is looking to expand its focus on AI-drive route optimisation, deeper integration of wind propulsion technologies and enhanced regulatory compliance tools to ensure operators are ready for evolving regulations like FuelEU, EU ETS, Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI).

“Route optimisation becomes crucial as alternative fuels are phased in and initially are facing both limited availability and higher costs,” notes Pekka Pakkanen, executive vice president of NAPA.

“A route planning digital solution enables ship operators to accurately estimate the cost of bunkering stops by integrating real-time fuel prices, port fees and availability of different fuel types. Operators can plan routes that factor in the cost of each potential bunker, ensuring the most cost-effective choices.”

The software can also account for fuel efficiency, emissions regulations and multi-fuel compatibility, helping operators manage the complexities of switching between traditional and alternative fuels, which are often more expensive.

“Furthermore, our work with Blue Visby – which aims to help the shipping industry eliminate the wasteful practice of ‘sail fast, then wait’ (SFTW) through a collaborative platform – will play a crucial role in future innovations by optimising port arrival times, helping to reduce congestion and emissions,” Pakkanen notes

What is clear is that the transition to a lower emissions maritime industry is driving the demand for both new fuels as well as better data management around vessel operations.

“Digitalisation is taking place to ensure a full and clear transfer of information. As we move to a well-to-wake future, where the whole upstream emissions have to be accounted for in some way, you’ll need to understand the whole fuel chain,” notes Hughes.

“Information will need to be transferred all along this chain and be accessed by the various people that need it – not just the operators, but also the regulatory authorities. Simply put, there’s a lot of innovation going on.” 

Of course, none of this can work unless the major ports are preparing for the bunker supply of the next generation of lower emission fuels. According to Arne Strybos, programme manager climate transition at the Port of Antwerp-Bruges, steps are already well under way.

“We already have multiple green shipping corridors, where we connect with other ports worldwide and where we jointly develop bunkering of infrastructure. Our contributions in international port collaboration like The International Association of Ports and Harbors (IAPH) and World Ports Climate Action Program (WPCAP), are a testament to our collaborative work,” Strybos explains.

“Specifically on the ARA bunker region, we are working together with Port of Rotterdam and Port of Amsterdam on the licensing schemes for bunker operators, ensuring the same baseline for requirements and hence creating a licensing structure on a level playing field so that bunkering vessels can conduct bunkering operations in all our ports.”

Despite all the good progress, Hughes believes that there’s still plenty of work to be done. 

“More can now be achieved with the technology to improve the tracking of shipping and how vessels can manage route planning and optimisation but there are still a lot of unknowns for operators to consider, which may lead to them holding back on investing in lower GHG alternatives,” he says.

“I’m afraid the puzzle is not complete yet and that’s part of the problem; we don’t know what the regulatory landscape is going to be.”

Sustainability will play a key role in route selection, not just in terms of fuel type but also to minimise emissions in emission-sensitive areas, reducing potential penalties and enhancing green credentials.

“Overall, transitioning to sustainable fuels will make route planning and optimisation more dynamic, data-driven, and focused on infrastructure, fuel availability and compliance factors,” concludes Hooper.

“In a competitive maritime industry, adopting vessel performance technology offers a straightforward and cost-effective path to immediate improvements.”